Tuesday, December 6, 2011

From Fukushima to Charlie Sheen – the Twitter hashtags that dominated 2011

 

A shop in Tahrir Square is spray painted with the word "Twitter" during the Egyptian uprising. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

From Charlie Sheen to the Arab spring, Twitter has revealed its most talked-about hashtag topics for 2011.

 

The top hashtag this year was #egypt, following the downfall of president Hosni Mubarak in February. The second most popular was #tigerblood – the phrase coined by Sheen following his acrimonious axing from hit US sitcom Two and a Half Men in March.

 

News events dominated Twitter's hashtags this year, including the Japanese earthquake in March, the Egyptian revolution and the Super Bowl.

 

Sheen was the most tweeted about actor of 2011, according to Twitter, as he quickly attracted millions of followers on the social network amid the media frenzy around his high-profile firing. The momentous downfall of Mubarak, which many saw as the tipping point for the Arab spring uprising, was the most talked-about news story of the year on Twitter.

Durban talks unlikely to result in climate change deal

 

Ban Ki-moon at the Durban talks where he says a 'binding climate change agreement may be beyond our reach – for now'. Photograph: Mike Hutchings/Reuters

A global legally binding deal on climate change is likely to be off the table, at least "for now", the United Nations secretary-general has said in his most downbeat assessment of the talks.

Assessing the nine days of negotiations at Durban so far, Ban Ki-moon told delegates: "It may be true, as many say: the ultimate goal of a comprehensive and binding climate change agreement may be beyond our reach – for now."

He said that the "grave economic troubles in many countries" had overshadowed the talks, now in their second week and with three days to go. But he also blamed "abiding political differences [and] conflicting priorities and strategies for responding to climate change". As a measure of the low expectations, Ban said he was looking for just "incremental advances".

The key issues at the talks are now clear: whether the "green climate fund" is permitted to go ahead; the future of the Kyoto treaty, which is in grave doubt; and whether there can be a new global legally binding treaty on the climate in future, or a weaker compromise. What is still unclear, with just three full negotiating days to go, is whether any of these can be resolved.

For the multibillion dollar green fund to start distributing money to developing countries at last, the US – which has been blocking its launch – says it needs to be satisfied of the "transparency" of its governance. Todd Stern, US special envoy for climate change, said: "There are about 20 parties who have serious issues with the fund."

But he added: "I have no reason to think this is hung up at this point. We have been a very strong supporter of the fund. I'm pretty optimistic about it."

If it proceeds, it is likely to be the only major issue to be resolved here.

More complex is the future of the Kyoto protocol, the world's only treaty stipulating cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, which the US has never joined and will not. The first "commitment period", under which developed countries undertook to cut their emissions by an average of 5%, runs out in 2012. But Japan, Canada and Russia have said they will not join a proposed extension, leaving the European Union as the only major developed economy willing to consider it.

However, the EU is setting tough conditions – it wants major emerging economies such as China to agree to a "roadmap" by which they too would take on legally binding commitments on emissions in the future, at the latest by 2020. China has never agreed to make such international commitments before – currently, its target to curb emissions is only binding at a national level.

China's role so far at the talks has been ambiguous. Minister Xie Zhenhua, who heads the delegation, caused a small flurry of excitement when he spoke on Monday of China's willingness to participate in a "legal document". But as other countries were quick to point out, there is no clarity on what this could mean. Both the US and the EU warned that the Chinese position – that developed countries should agree to a legally binding agreement to cut emissions but China and other developing countries could get away with weaker commitments – appears unchanged.

On Tuesday, Xie Zhenhua reiterated his country's support for a continuation of the Kyoto Protocol (KP). "A second commitment period is a must. KP should be continued. Developed countries should honour their commitments", said Xie Zhenhua.

Jacob Zuma, South Africa's president, said both developed and developing countries needed to shift position. "Parties need to be reassured that should some of them commit to a second commitment period under Kyoto in a legally binding manner, others would be ready to commit to a legally binding regime in the near future … [Developing] country parties also need assurances that adequate and sustainable long term funding will be delivered."

This will not be resolved at Durban, which means that the question of whether the world will sign up to a full legally binding global deal on the climate will remain hanging, as will the question of whether the world is likely to cut its emissions by the drastic amounts needed without such a deal.

Outside the rarified wrangling of the conference chamber, there were warnings from scientists and economists. The International Energy Agency, one of the most respected bodies on energy policy, warned that the number of fossil fuel power stations and other energy hungry infrastructure that we build in the next three to five years may determine the whole future of the planet – because building such infrastructure, which will be around for decades to come, will "lock in" a world of high emissions. Scientists writing in Nature said on Sunday that global emissions from fossil fuels had risen by half since 1990, when these long-running UN negotiations were just beginning.

India dampens Europe's hopes of a new climate change agreement

 

India's environment minister, Jayanthi Natarajan, reiterated her challenge to rich nations to ratify a second commitment period of the Kyoto protocol. Photograph: Sipra Das/Getty Images

India last night rejected a European roadmap to a new single, legally-binding agreement to revive the stuttering UN climate talks.

 

Using robust diplomatic language, environment minister Jayanthi Natarajan challenged rich countries to ratify a second commitment period of the Kyoto protocol (KP), and pay what they had promised to developing countries before trying to negotiate a new deal.

 

The comments came ahead of a meeting between Europe, the Basic countries - India, China, Brazil and South Africa - and the US to try to win support for the EU's proposal to try to negotiate a new legally binding treaty by 2015 that would take effect in 2020.

 

China has been ambiguous on whether it will support the EU, while Brazil said it was still in discussions. South Africa's president referred to the roadmap in his speech but did not commit to it.

 

The group of four powerful "Basic" countries put pressure on Europe by claiming that developing countries had pledged to cut more emissions than the rich and the onus should now be on them to make deeper cuts.

 

"It is time that the developed countries stepped up to fulfil their part of the [legal] commitment under Kyoto. There is an ambition gap because Kyoto partners have not fulfilled their political obligations," said Natarajan.

 

In a clear reference to Canada, Russia and Japan, she said: "There are more countries in the wings preparing to announce their intention to forsake their international obligation."

 

Natarajan's defence of Kyoto was backed by China. "A second commitment period is a must. Kyoto should be continued. Developed countries should honour their commitments," said Xie Zhenhua, head of Chinese delegation at Durban.

 

India's continued hostility to the EU proposal was underlined when Natarajan suggested the EU's proposal was unclear. "I have come to Durban with an open mind. But I would like to know whether [the proposal] would be binding only for mitigation and whether it will be same for Annex-1 [industrialised] and non-Annex1 [developing] countries. Commitment for finance and technology, whether it will be present or not, how will equity figure in such an agreement, how will [intellectual property rights] be handled."

 

But the EU challenged India to outline an alternative that would harness the emissions of leading economies. Isaac Valero Ladron, spokesman for the EU environment commissioner Connie Hedegaard, said: "Will India take on the responsibility of being a major economy, to give a clear political signal that it will commit in the future? This is the question that should be answered in Durban. If they say no to the roadmap, what are they going to do? What is the alternative they are positing? Major emitters, developed and developing, should say here in Durban when they will be ready for a legally binding agreement."

 

To bolster its argument that rich countries must do more, India referred to a recent study by the Stockholm Environment Institute of the pledges made last year in Cancún by all countries. It shows that developing countries are pledging 30%-50% more cuts than the rich, and that the rich may be able to avoid taking any action whatever to meet their pledges by taking advantage of accounting loopholes.

 

Sivan Kartha and Peter Erikson of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) said: "Developing countries pledges amount to more absolute mitigation than all developed countries. Unless accounting rules for Annex 1 countries are made more stringent, then Annex 1 countries will be able to formally comply with their pledges with very little actual mitigation and possibly none at all."

Kartha and Erikson reviewed four recent detailed studies of countries' mitigation pledges under the Cancún agreements and concluded that these would lead to a 3-5C rise. They conclude that under both high and low growth conditions, and with both lax and lenient rules, developing countries had so far pledged to cut much more than rich countries.

 

The figures are significant because they undermine the EU's insistence that a new legally binding agreement is needed to get developing countries to cut emissions further.

 

But Hedegaard suggested that China was still not pledging enough to meet the conditions under which the EU would agree to sign up to a second commitment period of the Kyoto protocol.

 

"I still believe that China holds one of the central keys to unlock the situation. The EU is willing to take a second Kyoto period, but the central issue remain how China will follow us and when. Here more clarifications and further dialogue are needed."

 

Major developed countries also suggested reports that the Chinese had swung in favour of a new legally binding deal were wrong.

 

"China has always said it is in favour of a legally binding deal – that binds developed countries to make emissions cuts. It is certainly not clear that they are now saying they will take on international legally binding targets on the same basis [as developed countries], which is what we're talking about here," said one participant who could not be named.

 

Todd Stern, the US special envoy for climate change, cast doubt on whether China was showing greater flexibility in its position, as the UK had suggested. Fresh from a meeting with the Chinese minister Xie Zhenhua, he told a press conference: "It's not my impression that there has been a change at all in respect to a legally binding agreement. I did not understand [from] Mr Xie that there was any change."

 

The Greenpeace UK chief policy adviser, Ruth Davis, said: "The EU needs to stand firm and refuse to back down on its demand that we get a legal deal in 2015, but it will need the help of the hosts South Africa. That's what the vast majority of countries here want to see happen."

US politics live: Gingrich v Romney battle for the GOP nomination

 

It's takes two: Newt Gingrich versus Mitt Romney. Photograph: Joe Skipper/Reuters/Nicholas Kamm/AFP

2.27pm: Fiery stuff from Obama in his Osawatomie speech just now – thank you Fox News for cutting off the speech midway for an interview with Michele Bachmann – and what sounds like some pre-election message-testing:

Now, just as there was in Teddy Roosevelt's time, there's been a certain crowd in Washington for the last few decades who respond to this economic challenge with the same old tune. "The market will take care of everything," they tell us. If only we cut more regulations and cut more taxes, especially for the wealthy, our economy will grow stronger. Sure, there will be winners and losers. But if the winners do really well, jobs and prosperity will eventually trickle down to everyone else. And even if prosperity doesn't trickle down, they argue, that's the price of liberty.

It's a simple theory – one that speaks to our rugged individualism and healthy skepticism of too much government. It fits well on a bumper sticker. Here's the problem: It doesn't work. It's never worked. It didn't work when it was tried in the decade before the Great Depression. It's not what led to the incredible post-war boom of the 1950s and 1960s. And it didn't work when we tried it during the last decade.

And Obama follows up with this:

We simply cannot return to this brand of you're-on-your-own economics if we're serious about rebuilding the middle class in this country. We know that it doesn't result in a strong economy. It results in an economy that invests too little in its people and its future. It doesn't result in a prosperity that trickles down. It results in a prosperity that's enjoyed by fewer and fewer of our citizens.

Sharp line: "you're on your own economics" – or Yoyo economics, for short. A neat metaphor for the up and down vicissitudes of the marketplace.

2pm: President Obama is now speaking in Osawatomie, Kansas, famous for being the site of a speech by Teddy Roosevelt in 1910 (and a violent "Bleeding Kansas" fight, pre-Civil War, involving John Brown).

In 1910, President Roosevelt used his Osawatomie speech to launch his "New Nationalism" crusade ahead of the 1912 presidential election. Which Teddy promptly lost.

1.49pm: Meanwhile, Ron Paul unleashes an ad-hit against Newt Gingrich, accusing him of hypocracy, thus doing Mitt Romney's dirty work for him.

Former Olympus boss seeks shareholder support for reinstatement

 

Former Olympus chief Michael Woodford has been meeting the camera maker's main shareholders. Photograph: Rex Features/KeystoneUSA-ZUMA

Michael Woodford, the whistleblower ousted as chief executive of scandal-ridden Olympus, has met the camera maker's top shareholders with a view to triggering a vote to reinstate him.

The moves, which could lead to an extraordinary general meeting within eight weeks, were made as an independent panel issued a damning report on the £1.1bn accounting scandal at the Japanese firm, urging legal action against executives behind the cover-up and the replacement of others who knew about it.

Woodford, who said the report "completely vindicated" him, added: "I have been meeting some of the world's largest fund managers and investment banks and they have said they are keen for me to head up the company on a reformist agenda." The plan would involve resisting any break-up of Olympus while keeping its public listing, though the latter depends on a delayed earnings report being filed by a December 14 deadline.

Woodford stunned corporate Japan in October by revealing he had been fired for exposing huge advisory fees paid by Olympus and the resulting scandal caused the company's shares to halve.

The 178-page report into the affair, which used far tougher language than had been expected, said: "The core part of management was rotten and the parts around it were also contaminated by the rot … In the worst possible sense, the situation was that of the tribal culture of the Japanese salaryman." The panel criticised the camera maker's external auditors but it found no link with organised crime.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

ICC seeks Sudan defence minister arrest over Darfur

 

The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor has requested an arrest warrant for Sudan's defence minister for alleged crimes in Darfur.

Luis Moreno-Ocampo said Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein was suspected of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in 2003-04.

The Hague-based ICC has already indicted Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir on genocide charges in Darfur.

A senior Sudanese official has dismissed the warrant as "ridiculous".

Rabbie Abdal Attie told the BBC the ICC was a "tool of the West" and was trying to destabilise Sudan but that the warrant would not affect the country.

In another development, Kenya and Sudan have resolved their diplomatic row triggered by a Kenyan court issuing its own warrant for President Bashir after he was allowed to visit Nairobi in August in defiance of the ICC request.

 

The latest warrant request was made by Mr Moreno-Ocampo's office in a statement on Friday.

It asked the ICC "to issue an arrest warrant against the current Sudanese Defence Minister Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in Darfur from August 2003 to March 2004".

The statement added that Mr Hussein was among those who "bear greatest criminal responsibility" for atrocities in Darfur.

At the time, Mr Hussein was both Sudan's interior minister and its representative in Darfur.

Mr Moreno-Ocampo said he was requesting the warrant now "to encourage further public focus" on Sudan's policy and actions, and to "promote cooperation" to arrest the three Sudanese officials the ICC has already indicted.

 

Together with President Bashir, the court has also indicted another former Interior Minister Ahmad Muhammad Harun and Ali Muhammad Ali Abd-Al-Rahman, a suspected leader of the Janjaweed militia, over alleged atrocities in Darfur.

The ICC says that Mr Harun reported directly to Mr Hussein.

They all deny the charges and refuse to surrender to the ICC.

The mainly Arab Janjaweed militia is accused of carrying out a policy of ethnic cleansing and genocide against Darfur's black African population after rebels took up arms in 2003, accusing the government of ignoring the region.

According to the ICC, attacks followed a pattern, with Sudan's military surrounding a village, the air force bombing it and then soldiers and Janjaweed fighters going in on foot, killing, raping and looting.

 

The Hague-based court has also indicted two Darfur rebels, who are accused of attacking African Union peacekeepers in Darfur. The suspects surrendered to the court last year.

Despite the warrant, Mr Bashir has visited several countries, especially in Africa, without being arrested.

After the Kenyan court issued a warrant for Mr Bashir's arrest on Monday, Sudan ordered the expulsion of Kenya's ambassador in Khartoum, and threatened to expel Kenyan peacekeepers from Sudan and not to allow planes flying to Kenya to go through Sudanese airspace.

But on his return from an emergency trip to Khartoum, Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula on Friday said relations were now "back to normal" and that no diplomats would be expelled.

DR Congo election: Kabila guards 'shot UDPS supporters'

Guards loyal to Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila shot opposition protesters, killing 14, ahead of Monday's election, a human rights group says.

Human Rights Watch says at least four more people were killed during the poll - claims dismissed by the government.

It says LRA rebels killed three people in the north-east of this vast country as they went to vote.

The first official results give Mr Kabila a narrow lead.

With 15% of the votes counted, the election commission says Mr Kabila has 940,000 votes against 912,000 for his main rival, Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) leader Etienne Tshisekedi.

The BBC's Thomas Hubert in the capital, Kinshasa, says these results largely come from areas seen as Kabila strongholds, such as Katanga, while few results have been released from Kasai and Kinshasa, which voted against Mr Kabila in the previous election.

Election officials also said that their website had been hacked into and false results published there.

Our reporter says the first official results have been released earlier than planned because unofficial results have been circulating widely, raising tension.

On Thursday, Mr Tshisekedi said he had won the poll.

Guards 'fired in the air'

The election was marred by widespread logistical problems, as well as the violence, and polling in some areas was extended until Thursday to allow voting material to be delivered.

DR Congo is two-thirds the size of Western Europe but has hardly any road or rail links between its major cities, so the UN peacekeeping mission distributed some election equipment by helicopter.

This is the second election since the 1998-2003 war officially ended, following the loss of some four million lives. Armed groups continue to operate in eastern parts of the country.

On Wednesday, five African observers said the elections had been "successful", despite opposition calls for the polls to be annulled.

HRW called on the Congolese government to rein in the military, accusing President Kabila's guards of firing indiscriminately at UDPS supporters and civilians last Saturday, after Mr Tshisekedi was met by crowds of his supporters when he arrived in Kinshasa's airport.

But Information Minister Lambert Mende said investigations showed that the guards had fired into the air and that three people had been killed during clashes between rival supporters - as previously announced.

HRW researcher Ida Sawyer told the BBC that the number of deaths had been verified and cross-checked by witnesses and relatives of those who had been shot and killed.

HRW also pointed to numerous cases of voter intimidation around the country.

Ms Sawyer accused a local leader in the volatile North Kivu region of impounding election material at his house for several days until local people agreed to vote for Mr Kabila.

She said that the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebels had kidnapped 10 women and boys, as well as killing three men attempting to vote.

One of the women was six months pregnant and was raped before being freed, she said. She lost her baby.