How unpopular is the government?
Nearly twice as many voters now disapprove of the Coalition as approve (55 per
cent vs 30 per cent). Labour has neither apologised for the economic
problems it left behind nor helped argue for the cuts necessary to fix
Britain’s deficit, but less than a year after his party’s massive defeat, Ed
Miliband is 10 per cent ahead in some opinion polls. As the cuts, inflation
and higher mortgage rates bite, the Cameron-Clegg government should prepare
for much worse to come.
Should Cameron worry?
Most governments can ignore mid-term opinion polls, but if enough Lib Dems
conclude that the Coalition is ruining their electoral chances, it could
collapse. The Barnsley by-election, where Nick Clegg’s candidate was beaten
into sixth place by the BNP, shocked his party. In May’s local, Scottish and
Welsh elections, the Lib Dems are set to suffer their worst losses in modern
history. This won’t produce an immediate walkout, but Nick Clegg will be
under pressure to get more concessions to prove that the Lib Dems are making
a difference. However, 58 per cent of Tory party members already think
Cameron has surrendered too much.
How can Cameron keep Clegg in the Coalition?
At the end of this parliament, the deficit should be eliminated and the next
generation will be liberated from impossible levels of debt repayments and
taxes. Getting to that point will be painful, but the Prime Minister and his
deputy will be able to say that Labour opposed every step on the journey. If
the Lib Dems walk out before that job is done, they will face the worst of
all worlds: hated by the Left for cosying up to the Tories and by the Right
for weakness.
Is Cameron doing anything other than wait?
Yes. He is ready to take a leaf out of Margaret Thatcher’s book and pick some
fights with what George Osborne calls “the forces of stagnation”. Thatcher
chose the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, trade union barons and loony
Left councils, battles that ensured she kept the Right on side. Downing
Street is ready for big, defining fights with critics of its most popular
projects, arguing that it’s morally right to cut welfare dependency, control
immigration and reduce the huge perks gap between private sector workers and
public sector union members.
Will Cameron toughen up on crime and Europe?
Ukip, in particular, is getting stronger because the Coalition is not throwing
red meat to traditional Tories on issues like military spending, human
rights laws and criminal justice. Tory MP Bill Cash has written that Cameron
is actually taking Britain “backwards” on Europe. Downing Street counters
that even if the Tories had won an outright majority, it would have been
difficult to get other European governments to give powers back to Britain.
Cameron will therefore need to find other ways of keeping his troops happy.
Defeating the Alternative Vote and appointing a new party chairman to lead
aggressive attacks on Labour will help.
What about ditching unpopular policies?
One of the reasons why the Coalition hasn’t looked in charge of events – such
as the evacuation of Libya – is that it’s doing too much. The Downing Street
operation has just been beefed up, largely because it hadn’t been able to
focus its intellectual and communications firepower on the projects that are
central to its success. The Government would be wise to jettison its
high-speed rail plan and the unpopular reorganisation of the NHS, about
which Lib Dems are particularly anxious. Unfortunately, the Government is
already very committed to both projects; U-turning now would make it look
weak.
What is the Conservative masterplan for the 2015 election?
It has three big dimensions. Growth will be the focus of this month’s Budget:
an economic boom would mean that, by 2015, Cameron would be able to offer
modest tax cuts alongside public spending increases. The second aim is to
keep pensioners happy. Even during these toughest of times, older people’s
benefits have been protected, because they are the biggest and most reliable
voting bloc. Cameron’s third big hope is that Labour keeps Ed Miliband as
leader: all the research suggests that voters don’t see him as prime
ministerial material.
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